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https://doi.org/10.14300/mnnc.2018.13012

Сomparison of prediction scales of recurrent ulcer gastroduodenal bleeding in hospital

[Surgery]
Sergey Bystrov; Sergey Katorkin; Leonid Lichman; Oleg Lisin;

The article presents the analysis of predictive efficacy of the following prognostic scales for the gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding recurrence in males and females: scale by M. M. Vinokurov, bleeding recurrence prediction system (BRPS), the scale of T. A. Rockall. Scales were compared by such parameters as sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive evaluation and negative predictive evaluation. Statistically significant results allow conclusion that the BRPS scale predicts gastroduodenal ulcers rebleeding better and more precisely in female subjects, while the Rockall scale – in males. Using the scale by M. M. Vinokurov is less justified in predicting the likelihood of recurrent ulcer gastroduodenal bleeding.

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Keywords: bleeding, endoscopic hemostasis, peptic ulcer, prediction of rebleeding, gastroduodenal ulcer,prediction scale