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[History of medicine]
Egor Kotenov; Vladimir Dubyansky; Anna Volynkina; Alexander Zaitsev; Alexandr Kulichenko; Svetlana Kravtsova;
The article is devoted to the evaluation of epidemic potential of the natural foci of plague in the North Caucasus at the present, based on historical and current data about the activity of epidemic foci and the properties of the plague microbe strains. Digitizing and georeferencing of data about the epidemic manifestations of plague in the North Caucasus in XVIII–XX centuries was performed using the Google Maps, Yandex maps. It has been noted the congruence of places of known epidemic manifestations of plague in the North Caucasus in the past, with areas of natural foci of plague. These data suggest that there is a periodic change of the variants of plague strains that circulate in the natural foci. The epidemic potential of lowland natural foci of plague in the North Caucasus remains. In order to explain the prolonged absence of the epidemic manifestations of plague in the Central Caucasus natural focus it is expediently to perform a comparative analysis of reconstructed ancient DNA with the genomes of modern strains.
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Keywords: plague, epidemic potential, natural foci, history